Bayesian, frequentist and statistical learning perspectives on penalising model complexity

In regression analysis, a common problem is to decide on the right functional form of the fitted model. On the one hand, we would like to make the model as flexible as possible so that it can adjust itself bias-free to the true data-generating process. On the other hand, the more freedom we give the…

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Training school and workshop on calibration and validation of dynamic vegetation models in France

Two events I’m involved in that may be interesting for people that work on connecting process-based vegetation models to data. Both are organized through CA 1304 PROFOUND, and fully funded by COST: There will be a training school on Bayesian calibration, forecasting and multi-model predictions of process-based vegetation models in Rencurel / Grenoble, France, 12.-16.…

Back from Bayes IV

As announced a while ago, we had moved our now already traditional summer school in Bayesian Statistics to Bergen, Norway this year. Maybe fitting for such a course, the weather turned out to be very different from the long-term frequency, in what must be the upper 1% quantile of sun intensity for the region at…

Webinaring Bayes

Yesterday, I gave my first webinar, or online lecture if you want. The occasion was that a few people from another university asked me if I could give an introductory lecture about Bayesian statistics, and because traveling would have cost me a full day, I suggested doing a “virtual visit” instead. It’s a funny coincidence…

Summer school in Bayreuth 17th -21th of September 2012 – An Introduction to Bayesian modeling for Ecologists

As last year, we’ll do a summer school on Bayesian modeling in Bayreuth. See the invitation below, and feel free to circulate widely!!! Motivation Statistical modeling with Bayesian methods has become increasingly popular in ecology, but the techniques required for doing so are not part of the standard curriculum in most Universities. Our aim for…

Phylogenetics, models and evolution

I want to highlight two interesting papers coming out last week in the field of phylogenetics and evolution. The first is a paper by Nagalingum et al. who use fossil-calibrated molecular phylogenies to examine the diversification of cycads, and ancient lineage of woody plants. The cycad record dates back at least to the early Permian…

Setting up OpenBugs and R

NOTE: these instructions are outdated, an update has been posted here. WinBugs and its open source counterpart OpenBugs are the most commonly used software packages for evaluating the posterior distribution of a Bayesian model by means of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm (see e.g. my previous post for more details on MCMC algorithms). WinBugs…