Back from Bayes IV

As announced a while ago, we had moved our now already traditional summer school in Bayesian Statistics to Bergen, Norway this year. Maybe fitting for such a course, the weather turned out to be very different from the long-term frequency, in what must be the upper 1% quantile of sun intensity for the region at…

Notes from France

I’ve just returned from two weeks in France, the first week on the International Statistical Ecology Conference 2014 in Montpellier, and the second at the Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA) in Grenoble, visiting the groups of Wilfried Thuiller and Sébastien Lavergne, which was both great. Some impressions from the ISEC: First of all, my compliments to…

Happy new year, and back on track!

The end of last year has been busy, with the result that my blogging activity had nearly ceased. No R holiday cards or end-of-the-year posts like other people. I’m happy to say though that, at least in spirit, but hopefully soon in writing as well, I’m back on track, so more frequent posting will commence…

True models, predicitve models, and consistent Bayesian state-space estimators for chaotic dynamics

I recently posted about a reply to a PNAS paper in which we show that, contrary to the claim in the original publication, the “true” model does by no means delivers worse predictions for chaotic population dynamics than time-series methods without any specific mechanism underlying, provided appropriate statistical estimation methods are used. To be clear,…

Back from Bayes (again)

I just returned from our Summer School on Bayesian Statistics that we held in the mountains around Freiburg. Thanks to all the participants as well as my fellow lecturers Jörn Pagel and Joe Chipperfield for the really amazing time up there in the hut, hope to see you all soon!

Summer School on Bayesian Statistics in Freiburg

As in the last years, we organize a course in Bayesian statistics this summer. See invitation below, feel free to distribute widely. 3rd International Summer School An Introduction to Bayesian Modeling for Ecologists in Freiburg (Germany) 28th July to 2nd August 2013   Motivation Bayesian inference is an increasingly used statistical framework in ecology, but…

Back from Bayes

I just returned from teaching a workshop on Bayesian statistics together with Joe Chipperfield in Göttingen. The workshop was organized by the Biodiversity, Macroecology and Conservation Biogeography group in the aftermath of the Macroecology meeting, so quite a few people stayed over the weekend after the meeting, and it generally turned out to be a…

Is the p-value a conditional probability?

A comment by Deborah Mayo on a recent post by Andre Gelman started a heated and surprisingly subtle discussion on the correct (frequentist) definition of the p-value that currently continues on Larry Wasserman blog. Read for yourself – I for myself am still happy to write p(D>d|H0) ;).

A world model for ecology?

This week’s edition of Nature featured a comment by Drew Purves and colleagues titled “Ecosystems: Time to model all life on Earth”, in which they propose that we need a new model type, general ecosystem models (GEM), that describe the interplay of all major organism types on earth. They say that GEMs […] could capture…

Mechanistic vs. phenomenological descriptions of nature

A few days ago, I came across a very interesting post on “Mechanistic models: what is the value of understanding?” by Amy Hurford on her Just Simple Enough: The Art of Mathematical Modelling blog. The post discusses the old, but for me still somewhat unresolved question of the relationship / definition / statistical treatment /…

Summer School in Bayreuth 2nd -5th of August 2011: An Introduction to Bayesian Modeling for Ecologists

Motivation Statistical modeling with Bayesian methods has become increasingly popular in ecology, but the techniques required for doing so are not part of the standard curriculum in most Universities. Our aim for this course is to give a simple and practical introduction to Bayesian modeling for graduate students and early-stage researchers in ecology. Organizers: Björn…